Best YRFI Bets Today: Yes Run First Inning Picks

Best YRFI Bets Today: May 2nd

At BetQL, our team of MLB betting experts goes above and beyond just looking at win/loss records. We dissect every matchup, analyzing the starting pitchers' ERAs and recent performances, along with the opposing teams' batting averages against pitchers of that handedness.

We factor in historical trends for first-inning scoring for both teams, and any relevant ballpark factors that might influence offense. Our in depth research is what sets our Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) picks apart. We aren't just throwing darts – we're providing you with the most in-depth analysis possible to inform your bets every single day of the MLB season.

MORE: TODAY'S BEST NRFI BETS

Cubs at Mets YRFI (-110, DraftKings)

With limited options on Thursday, we’ll take a chance on the Cubs and Mets. The biggest reason to target this game from a YRFI perspective is New York starter Adrian Houser. He’s been a disaster in his last two starts and allowed four first-inning runs last time out. While he’s only allowed first-inning runs in one other start, he’s someone who looks vulnerable. Plus, the Cubs are tied with sixth in the big leagues in first-inning runs this season, so they’re capable of taking advantage against someone like Houser.

On the other side, the Mets are tied for the fewest first-inning runs in baseball. But the players at the top of the order are capable of performing better than their 2024 numbers indicate. The Mets also have Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez getting to the plate if anybody gets on base. Ben Brown starts for the Cubs and isn't the most reliable pitcher after giving up two runs in the first inning of his last start. Just in case Houser actually pitches well on Thursday, the Mets are actually a decent Plan B to score in the first inning.

Guardians at Astros YRFI (-120, Caesars)

The Astros currently rank second in YRFI with 19 of their 30 games having first-inning runs. Houston’s poor pitching has been part of the season. That could continue with Spencer Arighetti starting. He got roughed up for four first-inning runs in his last start despite a scoreless first inning in his other two starts. But keep in mind the Guardians are led by leadoff hitter Steven Kwan, who’s batting .360 on the season. He could easily lead off the game with a hit, and with Anders Gimenez and Jose Ramirez behind him, that’s an excellent recipe for first-inning runs.

Meanwhile, we're not sold on Logan Allen getting out of the first inning unscathed. While he’s only allowed first-inning runs in one of his six starts, his 5.46 ERA says he’s vulnerable in any inning. The Astros are in the top 10 in first-inning runs this year. They’re even better at doing it while at home. Just in case Arighetti survives the first inning without allowing a run, the Astros have a decent chance of providing the early scoring in this game.

What is a YRFI bet?

A "Yes Runs First Inning" bet, also known as YRFI, is a wager in baseball betting on whether at least one run will be scored in the first inning of the game. It's the opposite of a "No Runs First Inning" (NRFI) bet.

For your YRFI bet to win, you only need one team to score a run in the first inning. This could happen with just one hit, like a home run, or through a combination of baserunning and RBIs (Runs Batted In).

YRFI bets are a popular choice because they offer the chance for a quick win or loss, with the action decided within the first three outs for each team. However, they also tend to have lower odds compared to NRFI bets since statistically, runs are more likely to be scored throughout a game than not at all in the first inning.

How Often does Yes Runs First Inning Win?

Predicting win rates for Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) bets is tricky. Historically, runs are generally scored throughout a game, making No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets slightly more likely to win overall. However, the real key lies in analyzing each matchup.

Pitchers with a tendency to walk batters or struggle early could open the door for first-inning runs. Strong batting lineups facing weaker pitchers on offense-friendly fields with good weather also increase YRFI chances. Because of these factors, sportsbooks set lower odds for YRFI bets compared to NRFI bets, reflecting their higher statistical likelihood of winning.

YRFI Betting Strategies

Maximizing your win rate for your YRFI bets today requires a deeper dive and a concrete strategy. Here are some key tips to consider:

Know Your Pitchers: Focus on starting pitchers with a history of allowing runs early. Look for high walk rates, a tendency to struggle in the first inning (inflated first-inning ERA), or pitchers facing unfamiliar lineups. These factors can create opportunities for baserunners and early scoring.

Sharpshooters at the Top: Analyze team batting lineups. Teams with strong hitters at the top of the order, known for getting on base and generating power, pose a significant threat in the first inning. Look for matchups where these "hot bats" face pitchers who might struggle to contain them.

Park Power: Don't underestimate the impact of the ballpark. Hitter-friendly parks with short fences or favorable weather conditions can tilt the odds in favor of YRFI bets. Warmer temperatures and parks known for producing more home runs can increase the chance of early offense.

Beyond Statistics: Stay updated on recent news and trends. Is a pitcher coming off an injury? Is a key hitter slumping? Injuries or unexpected lineups can affect performance and influence the likelihood of first-inning runs.

The Best Sportsbooks to bet on YRFI

Shopping around for the best odds is crucial for maximizing your return on YRFI bets. Here's a breakdown of some top sportsbooks known for competitive YRFI offerings:

• DraftKings: This industry leader boasts a massive welcome bonus and regularly provides odds boosts to give your YRFI wagers an extra edge.
• FanDuel: FanDuel is a popular choice for YRFI bettors thanks to their user-friendly app and reputation for offering some of the earliest YRFI lines on the market.
• BetMGM: Looking for a big first-bet bonus? BetMGM might be your pick. They offer a substantial welcome offer to new users, making it a good option for trying out YRFI bets.
• Caesars Sportsbook: Caesars leverages its strong brand reputation and offers ongoing promotions to attract bettors. You might find competitive YRFI odds alongside other enticing offers.
• BetRivers: BetRivers is a rising star in the sports betting world, known for its clean interface and competitive odds across various markets, including YRFI.

Need more Betting Picks?

Dive deeper into your betting strategy with BetQL's extensive suite of resources, including:

• MLB Computer Picks: Leverage the power of our advanced model to gain insights on potential winning MLB bets.
• MLB Over/Unders: Find expert analysis and data-driven predictions for MLB total run bets.
• MLB Prop Picks: Discover BetQL's expert picks for various player and game-specific MLB prop bets.
• MLB NRFI Bets: We provide in-depth analysis and picks for No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets for those seeking a different strategic approach.
• MLB Public Betting Picks: See where the money is flowing and gain insights into public sentiment on upcoming MLB games.
• NIT Picks: Explore expert picks and betting trends for the National Invitation Tournament (NIT) college basketball games.
• NBA Over/Unders: Gain valuable analysis and predictions for NBA total point line bets.